TED FORREST’S AMAZING ANALYSIS
In Las Vegas, there is a poker room called bellagio, where this hand took place, in a mixed game half $1,000-$2,000 seven card stud Eight or Better (S 8B), half $1,000-per-point Chinese Poker. Ming Ly, Match, Chau Giang and Ed had been playing four-handed for most of the two days. The ante at Stud Eight or Better is $200, with the low card forced to open for $300.
The third-street raise Completed the Bet to $1,000, and after that the Betting was set at $1,000 and $2,000. Ming only bet $300 showing the eight of clubs, and then Chau raised the Bet to $1,000 with the ace of hearts. Ed had a pair of tens and sevens in the hole and the ten of clubs in the door. Match had the King of diamonds and he folded, and then Ming called another $700. Chau showed an Ace of hearts and seven of hearts and bet out on the fourth street.
Then Ed called while showing the ten of clubs and nine of spades. Ming had the eight of clubs and six of hearts and he Called. Right now, Ed felt that there was every chance that Chau had a four or Seven low. Ed wasn’t too certain about Ming’s hand, but he had a feeling he might have a pair or a trio of cards under eight, or else he might have four cards to an eight low draw.
Chau bet when caught the seven of clubs on the fifth street, making him a pair of open sevens (Ace of hearts, seven of hearts and the seven of clubs). Ed got an eight of hearts, and Ming got a King. Ed raised the Bet to $4,000 with tens and an open-ended straight draw, while his board showed an unsuited ten, nine and eight. Ed admired the fact that Ming folded his hand, and then Chau called the raise.
By now, Ed was pretty sure Chau had a pair of sevens and four to a seven low. Ed was certain that Chau didn’t have a four flush, because if he did, then he would have reraised Ed with the hand. Chau go the Jack of clubs and Ed got a King, which did him no good. (Ed wished they had been dealt each others cards on the sixth street.) Chau checked, and he Called Ted’s bet.
Ed chose to bet, although his hand didn’t improve on the sixth seventh streets, as he knew in advance what move he’s make on the river. If Chau had chosen to check to Ed, then Ed would bet, provided he made a straight or a trio of tens, and even if he only ended up with a pair of tens. Ed would have also checked two pairs, as he had felt that Chau would not have Called with a lower two pair, and Ted would have Called only if Chau had beaten his hand. If Chau would have Chosen to bet on the end, then Ed would have raised with a straight, three tens, and a pair of tens.
Ed would’ve raised even with a two pair, because although Chau would have most probably checked and called if he had a hand that would have Beat tens up, there was also a fair chance that if he had chosen to bet, for example, aces up and was raised on the end, perhaps he would have opted to fold this type of a hand frequently to rationalize the risk of a raise. That is to say, if Ed had raised on the end with two pair of tens up, he Could have forced Chau to fold a better hand, such as Aces up.
(One must remember that a raise risks only one Bet instead of two bets, as Ed must call his bet in any case, because he may be Betting a low). Chau bet after he’d looked at his last card and studied it. Chau either had a low hand or Some kind of high hand that would beat tens up Ed didn’t think Chau would have Bet two small pair over here. Anyway, as per Ed’s previous thinking in the hand, he Could have just raised Chau dark, however, he had not wanted to risk getting a reflex call from Aces up or a trio of sevens.
Ed had been pretty certain that he had been drawing dead to beat a trio of tens or a straight, thus, with these hands he would have Been incredibly shaken later, if Chau would have shown him a high misinterpretation hand. Therefore, if Ed had been reraised, he would have had an easy call even though he’d have only a pair of tens. Ed noticed he had a three of hearts, which was of no use, when he looked at his last card. It was of no use to Ed, but then at the very least there had been a lesser chance of Chau making a heart flush.
Now that Ed was in, he might as well go all the way. So he took the leap and raised. That’s when Chau got up from His chair and looked at Ed’s board. Ed saw that Chau appeared to be sick. Chau was loud when he Began analyzing the play of the hand. Chau had been taking a long time to decide at a time when everybody was bushed. By this time, Ed knew that Chau had a high hand of some sort, and Ted thought that Chau could only have Been Jacks up at the most.
Ed had been all right for the first twenty seconds, while Chau pondered, but then Ed focused on the fact that he had a pair of tens and that there was $25,000 in the pot – It couldn’t be possible that his hand was good. Chau had Jacks up, aces up, or even a trio of sevens, and all it would take him to look Ed up was $2,000. In fact, Ed hoped Chau had the Jacks up. Although any of these three types of hands were effectively the same against Ed’s hand, psychologically it seemed easier to beat Jacks up rather than the other two hands.
Ed sensed Chau had replayed the hand and counted the pot and knew that the pot had laid him over 12-to-1 that he had a pat hand in these Circumstances. Chau must have taken around fifty seconds to think, and yet it felt like Close to three minutes to Ed Ming unintentionally came to Ed’s rescue By Proposing to match that they change the game to just Chinese online poker when Ed had really started to sweat. Match would have welcomed the Change, as he was an expert at Chinese Poker.
This had been a great break for Ed to appear unconcerned with his hand and the $25,000 pot in the Center of the table. Ed started quarrelling that they shouldn’t change now, as they had been playing both games all day and night. Ed was regarded as a sitting duck of sorts at Chinese Poker, and since that may have Been true, hence it was perfectly normal for him to insist that they not change the game. Ed sensed that his own concern and attention towards not changing the game to Chinese Poker had been enough to persuade Chau that Ed must have Beaten him, and Ted was relieved when Chau’s cards bit the dust.
Let us now analyze this hand. Ed believed he made a bad call with a pair of tens at the third street, bearing in mind that Chau Giang had raised with an Ace, despite the fact that the suited seven with the tens helped to some extent. In this place, chau would have normally raised with almost any hand but the worst, however, Ed’s hand had frequently been in bad shape until now.
If Match had called with his King after Ed, he would have disapproved and looked to end it without immediate improvement. Ed figured he had made a bad call on the third street. You see, chau had picked up his cards in a comfortable, relaxed fashion. From this, Ed felt that Chau would have Been more guarded about his hand if he’d had aces or a pair in the hole.
Ordinarily, it would have Been a mistake to lock oneself into putting one’s opponent on one sort of hand and then sticking by it. However, in this situation, Ed was glad that he’d done so. Ed was as certain as was possible that Chau had three Babies. Chau’s bet on the fourth street, and Ted’s call with tens and a three to a straight flush, and Ming’s call with an eight and a six showing made sense. Chau’s bet on the fifth street, showing the ace of hearts, the seven of hearts and the seven of clubs was obvious.
Ed was pleased with his raise with tens and an open-ended straight draw, with the inclusion of sevens. It was possible that Ed had the Best high hand, and a draw to a big hand. It was much more possible for Ed to win the pot because he got rid of Ming (with the raise), if he had three to a low and a pair. There was also the possibility that Ed could have Caused a bad low draw to fold that would have Been very lucrative for his hand.
Ed had an important decision on the sixth street. Ed had neither been the favorite over Sevens and a low draw that also contained an Ace and a Jack. Although Ed had been confident that his tens were good, there was always some Chance that he had been beaten already. Had he Checked on the sixth street, it would have Been justifiable, nevertheless, Ed believes that after having raised on the fifth street, it had been better to bet. Betting had made it very Possible to eliminate the possibility of a call from two small pair on the end.
According to Ed, his raise on the river had been a very good decision. The pot had been laying him more than 11-to-1 odds ($22,800 to $2,000) on his raise. (Remember, he would have had to call anyway, since Chau could have Bet a low, and a raise would have risked only one Bet, not two, if Ed’s analysis of the hand had been correct and Chau couldn’t have made a reraising high hand.) It had probably even been about money that the raise-bluff would have succeeded.
But even if Ed had been wrong, it could not be more than 3-to-1 or 4-to-1 odds against its succeeding, and Ted had been getting a much bigger price than that. Ed needed to credit Ming with and unintended assist on the Bluff for having Suggested that they change the game. Time and again, if one’s opponent has been engaged in conversation and he has been speaking naturally, one Could assume that he would have Been unlikely to be bluffing.
Ming had given Ed the Chance to send out a false tell to Chau, which Chau had found to be Believable. Frank’s two cents: This hand had demonstrated the amount of reading, thinking, logic, gamesmanship, and bluffing that occurred in poker on a hand-by-hand basis. Ed gave us a rare glimpse into the high-stakes poker world that had been running 24/7 in Las Vegas.